A State-Space Model to Estimate Potential Growth in the Industrialized Countries

  • Thomas Brand
  • Gilles DufrénotEmail author
  • Antoine Mayerowitz
Part of the Dynamic Modeling and Econometrics in Economics and Finance book series (DMEF, volume 27)


This paper proposes new estimates of potential growth for 5 major industrialized countries. We use a state-space approach to obtain joint estimates of potential growth and the natural interest rates. The model is a reduced-form of a partial equilibrium model with a Phillips curve and an IS curve. In addition to the usual determinants of prices and business fluctuations, we consider financial variables as a determinant of the business cycle.


Potential growth State-space models Long-memory Industrialized countries 


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© Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2021

Authors and Affiliations

  • Thomas Brand
    • 1
  • Gilles Dufrénot
    • 2
    Email author
  • Antoine Mayerowitz
    • 3
  1. 1.CEPREMAPParisFrance
  2. 2.Aix-Marseille School of Economics and CEPIIMarseilleFrance
  3. 3.Paris School of EconomicsParisFrance

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