Match probability calculations for multi-locus DNA profiles
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The paper considers aspects of the match probability calculation for multi-locus DNA profiles and a related calculation which aims to assess the probability that a pair of profiles is concordant for the presence and absence of bands. It is suggested that levels of allelism and linkage for multi-locus profiles may be higher than reported in previous studies, and that comparison of bandsharing values between different studies is problematic. Our view is that the independence assumptions which underpin the calculations have not been established. The effect of ignoring (local) heterogeneities in band frequencies may be non-conservative. Concerns thus raised about the match probability calculation could be important in practical casework. The speculative nature of some aspects of the concordance probability calculation would seem to render it inappropriate for use in court.
KeywordsIndependence Assumption Match Probability Variable Number Tandem Repeat Forensic Casework Allelic Pair
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