Probability and the Cultivation of Uncertainty
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If there is any approach to ignorance that bears a creditable claim to generalizability and rationality simultaneously, it is probability. Virtually all modern accounts of uncertainty refer to the concept and theory of probability as a benchmark. However, it is crucial to realize that probability theory actually consists of a cluster of competing approaches, each of which claims either exclusive or universal status as the one true theory. The differences among these theories are considered fundamental by many probabilists, especially the division between the so-called ‘objective’ and ‘subjective’ approaches.
KeywordsPrior Distribution Subjective Probability Quantitative Probability Legal Profession Probability Judgment
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