Beyond Probability? New Normative Paradigms

  • Michael Smithson
Part of the Cognitive Science book series (COGNITIVE SCIEN)


The modern orientation towards ignorance contrasts starkly with traditional approaches. In the older view there is no room even for irreducible uncertainty, and all intractable forms of ignorance are banished from analysis. The modern view, on the other hand, in the words of Renee Fox (1980: 9) sees “errors and mistakes, as well as uncertainty and chance, as perennial parts of the… human condition.” Nor is this view consensual or stationary. At the very least, the past two decades have seen a dramatic increase in public awareness of uncertainty and fundamental challenges to traditional methods for coping with it. Concurrently, applied mathematicians, scientists, engineers, and philosophers have questioned the exalted position of probability theory as the dominant formalism for analyzing uncertainty.


Membership Function Fuzzy Number Combination Rule Belief Function Possibility Theory 
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Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag New York Inc. 1989

Authors and Affiliations

  • Michael Smithson
    • 1
  1. 1.Department of Behavioral SciencesJames Cook University of North QueenslandTownsvilleAustralia

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