Forecasting the 2002 Elections: Lessons from a Political Economy Model

  • Bruno Jérôme
  • Veronique Jérôme-Speziari
Part of the French Politics, Society and Culture Series book series (FPSC)


The presidential and legislative electoral contests had unusual outcomes. For only the second time since 1969, the Left was eliminated after the first ballot. In addition, voters acting as in the first ballot of a proportional election selected Jean-Marie Le Pen, leader of the National Front (FN) over Lionel Jospin, the incumbent Prime Minister. Further, President Jacques Chirac was reelected after the second ballot with 82.21 percent of the vote, an extreme result for the Fifth Republic. Finally, the subsequent legislative elections gave him fully 399 Deputies in the National Assembly. Could the 2002 upheaval have been forecast through an analysis of political and economic conditions existing months before?


Unemployment Rate Prime Minister Presidential Election Regional Unemployment Polling Institute 
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© Palgrave Macmillan, a division of Macmillan Publishers Limited 2004

Authors and Affiliations

  • Bruno Jérôme
  • Veronique Jérôme-Speziari

There are no affiliations available

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